Deputy Chief Economist of Core Logic, Sam Khater is a commonly quoted for his analysis of real estate and mortgage markets. Although real estate loans have been the exception to loan trends showing deterioration over the past few years, a recent shift has begin to occur for mortgage loans.
Khater has analyzed vintage performance, the first 10 months of a yearly loan performance cycle, since 2010. Khater has found an important trend in the 2010 - 2016 data. The 2016 was the first year that the delinquency rate after 10 months was higher than the year before. Though economic growth continued through 2015, he predicts that affordability cracks are beginning to show with a modest worsening of 0.17 percent in the 2016 vintage.
Even though the decline is slight, it is important to start tracking this trend as historically a decline in mortgage performance indicates a downward trend in the overall economy. When the economy is declining, lenders start tightening their belts until the credit cycle bottoms out and the economy begins to improve again. Although it is now a seller's market, this is definitely something to be aware of if you are planning on buying a home in the near future. Head caution to not only higher prices but also credit cycle and mortgage delinquency trends.
For the full article, download the: Market Pulse Report
For the full article, download the: Market Pulse Report